Double Trouble

It has been a stable of many Oscar nomination days, the Oscar Snub. An actor or actress has a fantastic year, and a couple of great performances, and they end up with no nomination. This as the result the actor or actress being too damn good in more than one picture and therefore splitting their vote. Witness Scarlett Johannsen last year, had she not appeared in Girl With A Pearl Earring, then her lead role in Lost In Translation would have been promoted as such, a lead role. The actress however had to campaign as a supporting actress for LIT and a lead actress for GWAP (which was not as good a film or performance). In the end she received no nominations, despite being up for two BAFTAs (winning for LIT) and two Golden Globes. Some years, the strategy works, just look at Julianne Moore getting nominated in the same year for both Far From Heaven and The Hours (two similar roles, but she was clearly a lead in FFH). And so we have this potential situation with several actors this year. Here is the rundown :

• Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of The Spotless Mind, Finding Neverland) : Kate's 3 nominations indicate that she is an Oscar favorite, and her ability to always give good solid performances always lands her in the potential nominee list at year end. Here she has two very dissimilar roles, the kooky wife who rediscovers love in Eternal Sunshine and the dying mother and wife who is part of JM Barrie's inspiration to write Peter Pan. There is one similarity, in that both films revolve around the male co-star. So, is she a lead actress or supporting actress, and in which film. I think she would be wise to bet her eggs on the Supporting Actress category for Eternal Sunshine as she may have a shot with that category. Her chances for winning best actress this year are slim, given the buzz surrounding Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake) and Annette Benning (Being Julia). That said, Kate seems to always get noticed for period peices like Neverland (see Titanic, Sense and Sensibility), and ignored for more modern roles like Eternal Sunshine (Hideous Kinky). Up in the air.

• Laura Linney (P.S., Kinsey): Perhaps one of the most talented actresses working in film today. Although she's been nominated once before (You Can Count On Me) I always felt that she's been overlooked one too many times for excellent work (The Truman Show, Mystic River). So will she get her due and be nominated twice. Her long-suffering wife routine in Kinsey should bode well if she campaigns in the supporting category (it worked for Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind). And while her reviews for PS are glowing across the board, she may suffer from the film being too small for the voters to notice. My bet is on a Kinsey nomination.

• Jude Law (I *heart* Huckabees, Closer, Alfie, The Aviator): Jude appeared in 6 films overall this year, but we shall ignore Sky Captain (bad reviews) and Lemony Snicket (only a voice role) for this discussion. Still, four roles, four potential nominations, if only he appeared in an Anthony Minghella pic this year we could've closed the door on the discussion. It seems that Alfie didn't catch fire with critics and his role in Huckabees didn't necessarily standout. The Aviator has way too many potential nominess in it that he may just get ignored. My bet is on a nomination for Closer which is generating some great buzz. And Hollywood will want to acknowledge the guy if only for stamina this year.