Annette V. Hilary ... Round 2 ?

I read on the Oscarwatch site that Roger Ebert is tipping Hillary Swank to blow everyone away with her performance in Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby. This of course is not good news for current favorite Annette Benning, who had to grin her way (while heavily pregnant) during the 2000 Oscars while the virtually unknown Swank walked away with the Best Actress trophy. Fast forward five years later, and we have a potential Hillary / Annette showdown on our hands. Here are your contestants:

Hilary Swank:

Since winning for Boys Don't Cry, Swank has not had the best of career arcs. With the exception of Insomnia her choice of roles has been fairly questionable (The Core, The Affair of the Necklace). It seems that her performance was a one-off, a role that was ready-made just for her. I was all but ready to write-off Swank as a fluke Oscar winner as I'm sure many people did. She has a lot going for her in Million Dollar Baby, the film looks set to get multiple nominations (including Best Picture) and if it does that increases both the film's profile and Hilary's chances. Also, Clint Eastwood seems to get winning performances from his actors (Gene Hackman for Unforgiven; Sean Penn and Tim Robbins for Mystic River). Still, I would like to think that the Academy will not forgive Swank so easily, sure she'll get nominated, but for her to be in the league of two time winners is unlikely.

Annette Benning

Mrs. Beatty has been playing mommy for the last 4 years or so, and has only re-emerged this year onto our screens. She had a major role in the sleeper hit Open Range and impressed everyone at the Toronto Film Festival with her Oscar-tipped performance in Being Julia. The film itself has gotten mixed reviews, and is perhaps too small. Still, Benning is Hollywood royalty and she is long overdue for a win after losing for both American Beauty and The Grifters (and although never nominated, her performance in Bugsy is one of my all time favorites).

The Verdict:

If it comes down to a two-horse race between Swank and Benning, my bet is on Benning. Still, I wouldn't bet the house yet, there is still the question of Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake who is likely to garner a lot of support this year as well.